A keynote for organizations on

Bringing homethe missing soldiers of Sultan Yacoub

When the answer is there is no way, how do you find one?

Modi Ben Shaul, with 31 years of experience as an intelligence researcher in the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) and IDF Military Intelligence, tells from the inside the story of the research that led to locating the missing soldiers, and turns it into practical, everyday tools for managers and teams in civilian companies.

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31years of experience in the Israel Security Agency and IDF Military Intelligence

8years leading the research to locate the missing soldiers

9topics and tools your audience takes back to work the very next day

A mission everyone called hard to crack, maybe even impossible

A tank of Company H, Battalion 362, in a field below the village on the ridge, during the Battle of Sultan Yacoub. Black-and-white photo — A tank of Company H, Battalion 362, during the Battle of Sultan Yacoub. Photo: Arieh Shoham, Battalion 362 reconnaissance platoon

After the Battle of Sultan Yacoub in June 1982, three IDF soldiers remained in enemy territory for decades, and no one knew what had become of them.

Modi Ben Shaul led the research to locate them for eight years. With no complete picture, facing partial and contradictory information, several research bodies each holding a different piece, and people who were sure there was nothing left to look for.

The keynote opens the file: how to build a situational picture from small pieces, what to filter out and how, how to keep a team going for years without an answer, and how to keep looking for a way when others before you did not succeed.

And from there, straight to the desks of the employees and managers in the audience: exactly the same questions come up in every organization facing a hard decision, limited resources and incomplete information.

The battlefield: Lebanon's Beqaa Valley

Tubalanu triangle junction, the “Micha” route, Biadr al-Adas junction. Drag the map to rotate it.

1982June 10–11. Armored Battalion 362, part of the 90th Division, fights at Sultan Yacoub in Lebanon's Beqaa Valley. Three soldiers remain missing.
2018For the first time, an inter-agency team is set up to re-examine the case.
2019The body of Zachary Baumel, of blessed memory, is returned from Syria to Israel in a covert military and diplomatic operation, with the help of Russian army special forces.
2025The body of Zvi Feldman, of blessed memory, is returned from Syria to Israel in a special operation.
2026The remains of Yekutiel Yehuda Katz, of blessed memory, the last soldier missing from the battle, are located and brought for burial in Israel. The Sultan Yacoub missing-soldiers file is closed.

This story, in front of your audience.

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What your audience takes home

Insights to take back to your everyday work

From intelligence to management

The working methods of intelligence professionals, translated into the everyday decisions of managers: collection, cross-checking, assessment and decision.

Problem-solving under uncertainty

How to move forward when information is partial, contradictory or missing, instead of waiting for a complete picture that may never arrive.

Creative, out-of-the-box thinking

How to find a new direction when every familiar path has already been tried, and what to do when the solution isn't where everyone is looking.

Accountability of employees and managers

What it means to take responsibility for a long mission with no promise of success, and how to pass that feeling on to the team.

Collaboration inside and outside the organization

How to get different bodies, with different interests and languages, to work together toward one goal and share the information they hold.

Handling resistance from above

How to advance an idea in front of senior leadership that has already decided it is impossible, and when persistence is the right thing.

Advanced research methodologies

Ipcha Mistabra (devil's advocate), the Popperian approach, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, a mathematical model (Leading Factor) and the Rumsfeld Matrix.

Holding on to the truth and fighting for it

You don't give up, even when you fail. When you lose, don't lose the lesson (the Dalai Lama).

Telling facts from assessments

Including assessments that over time turned into “facts”. The way is to always go back to the original raw information.

The speaker

Modi Ben Shaul

Research and intelligence expert, head of MODI-IN

31 years of experience in the Israel Security Agency and IDF Military Intelligence
8 years leading the research to locate the missing soldiers of the Battle of Sultan Yacoub
Open-source research and business intelligence for companies and organizations

Why should managers hear this story?

Because every organization reaches moments when it is told there is no way. The keynote shows how to keep searching.

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Recommended by men who fought in the battle

Adv. Yehuda KaplanTank driver in the Battle of Sultan Yacoub

“This is a fascinating lecture that includes revelations about the long investigation that are not known to the public.”

“Tank gunner Yehuda Katz, may God avenge his blood, whose body was returned to Israel after 44 years thanks to Modi's dramatic work.”
“In the lecture, Modi details the change in the way of thinking and the thinking outside the box that led to searching for the missing in a different direction from the one before.”
“Throughout his work, Modi solved questions that had different possible answers, analyzed them one by one, dealt with every option that was raised, and prioritized solutions.”
“In his lecture, Modi translates this into management tools that are also relevant to the civilian business world.”

Read the full letter (original letter in Hebrew)2 pages

Original letter in Hebrew. Click a page to enlarge it.

Hezi ShaiTank commander in the Battle of Sultan Yacoub

“Even after 44 years, the IDF does not forget its soldiers.”

“I was held captive for 3 years by Ahmed Jibril's organization in the First Lebanon War, in the Battle of Sultan Yacoub.”
“The lecture was very interesting. Modi talks about the difficulties, and how, despite them, perseverance and determination helped bring the missing soldiers home.”
“Many thanks to Modi and his fellow team members for thinking outside the box to locate the missing.”
“It is very important for the public to hear this lecture and understand the magnitude of the responsibility and the values the IDF holds.”

Read the full letter (original letter in Hebrew)1 page

Original letter in Hebrew. Click the page to enlarge it.

Good decisions start with information others didn't find

At MODI-IN I bring the working methods of the intelligence world into business: I collect, cross-check and analyze open-source information, and turn it into a clear picture that managers can act on.

Open-source researchOSINT

Finding and analyzing public information from the web, databases and documents to answer a defined business question: who is behind a company, what the background of a partner or supplier is, what is really happening on the ground.

Business & competitive intelligenceCI

Mapping competitors, markets and trends, to spot risks and opportunities before they hit the headlines and go into every negotiation or decision with an edge.

Keynotes for organizations

Three decades in the intelligence world, brought to audiences of managers and employees through a true story and lessons they can apply.

FAQ

Questions about the keynote

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All FAQs

What is the keynote about?

About the search for the soldiers missing since the Battle of Sultan Yacoub, which Modi Ben Shaul led for eight years, and what it teaches managers and teams about making decisions under uncertainty.

Who is it for?

Management forums, company conferences, seminars and team-building days, organizations going through change, and client events.

What does the audience take home?

Nine lessons: from intelligence to management, solving problems under uncertainty, creative thinking, responsibility, collaboration, handling opposition, advanced research methods, staying true to the truth, and telling facts from assessments.

How do I book the keynote?

Fill in the form on the keynote page, send a WhatsApp message or call +972-50-916-4860. Modi will get back to you to set the date, the length of the talk and how to tailor it to your audience.

Glossary

Tools from the intelligence world

Concepts that come up in the keynote

Devil’s advocate

Ipcha Mistabra

“The opposite is likely.” Deliberately testing the scenario opposite to the accepted assessment, so you don’t lock onto a single explanation.

Devil’s advocate

Competing hypotheses

ACH · Method

A method developed by Richards Heuer of the CIA: raise several possible explanations for the same evidence, and look for the one that the least evidence contradicts.

Competing hypotheses

Rumsfeld matrix

Known unknowns

Four kinds of knowledge: what we know we know, what we know we don’t know, what we don’t know we don’t know, and what we know without realizing it.

The Rumsfeld matrix

Facts vs. assessments

Analytic thinking

A ground rule of intelligence analysis: separate what is known from what is estimated, and go back to the original raw data when an old assessment starts behaving like a fact.

Nine tools from intelligence

Open-source intelligence

OSINT · Core concept

Collecting and analyzing information that has been published openly and legally: media, social networks, websites and official publications. The value is never in a single piece of information, but in cross-checking many of them.

What is OSINT

Research question

Starting point

Where every project begins. A focused question saves time and money, and points the collection at what really matters to your decision.

How I work

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